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I would like to be arguing that the Runnin’ Utes are going to make a miracle run through the Mountain West Conference Tournament, much like the baseball team last spring—win the title and earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament. But I don’t think I’m alone in saying it isn’t going to happen. The chances of the Utes winning the championship are about as good as the Jazz winning the NBA title or convincing Tom Brady to leave Gisele and marry me.
So instead, I will argue why this will be the year of the Lobos and New Mexico will win the MWC Championship title.
The Lobos have several things going for them heading into the conference tournament. They have already locked in their bid to the big dance with an outright win of the regular-season conference title. The tournament for the Lobos is nothing more than a chance to prime an already well-oiled machine. They don’t need to win the championship, so there is no pressure to perform well. It’s that “we have to win or this is it” kind of pressure that sometimes causes even great teams to crack. No pressure equals better, more relaxed play for New Mexico.
New Mexico had the second-highest scoring offense through conference play, scoring an average of 73.5 points per game. Only BYU, which the Lobos beat twice in regular-season play, has a higher scoring average. New Mexico has four players averaging double digits in scoring, led by Darington Hobson, who averaged 14.9 points per game in conference play. Hobson also averages 10 rebounds per game.
The Lobos also lead the conference in offensive rebounds and rebounding margin and are second in defensive rebounds.
Although New Mexico’s stats aren’t the most impressive in the conference, unlike every other team in the conference, the Lobos have found ways to win close games when they needed them the most. New Mexico hasn’t lost a game since Jan. 9, when it opened conference play with back-to-back losses to San Diego State and UNLV.
Many would argue that the school down south has the best chance of winning the title—after all, it averages the most in scoring, steals, defensive rebounds and 3-point shots. But the Cougars struggle in tournament play. They always seem to choke when it matters the most, and I don’t think this year will be any different.
UNLV is another top contender for the title, and it has home-court advantage on its side. The Lobos won two of the three conference championships played in Las Vegas thus far, but unlike New Mexico, they have the pressure of needing to perform well in the tournament to get an invite to the NCAA Tournament. UNLV will face Utah, which beat the Rebels twice this season in the first round, a task that won’t be as easy as some people think.
Everything leading up to the tournament is working in New Mexico’s favor. The Lobos have proven they have the talent to beat anyone in the conference, the experience of winning close games, the momentum to carry them through the tournament, and no added pressure to perform well. Sounds like a recipe for success to me.
p.fieldsted@chronicle.utah.edu
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